Presidential Election 2012
Sauli Niinistö is one of Finland’s most popular politicians, arguably its most popular. Ever since his only narrow defeat against the incumbent president Tarja Halonen in the second round of the last presidential election, an election in which many predicted Halonen’s massive popularity would allow her to walk to victory already in the first round, Niinistö has been considered a dead-certain to win the post in 2012. And indeed, in the parliamentary election of 2007 Niinistö received the highest number of votes ever by a candidate and went on to be speaker of the last parliament.
Niinistö did not stand for re-election to parliament in this year’s election but, as expected, confirmed he would stand as a candidate for president a few weeks ago. Opinion polls show he continues to be massively popular. But, we should not take his victory for granted yet. The post of President of the Republic is not a job appointed by declaration. The people must vote. Indeed, as mentioned, Tarja Halonen was expected to be reelected easily in the 2006 election but had to fight a late surge by Niinistö. In 1994, Elisabeth Rehn was expected to win over Martti Ahtisaari with a relatively comfortable margin, but went on to lose by around 7 percentage points.
The former Social Democratic prime minister Paavo Lipponen has now announced that he wishes to be the SDP’s candidate in next year’s presidential poll. According to an opinion poll today, Niinistö would easily beat Lipponen in a run-off between the two: Niinistö would win 63% of the vote. But, it is early days. A lot can happen during the autumn and winter. Will the financial crisis get worse and cause people to shy away from the right? Will Niinistö come across as arrogant, almost expecting to become president without the need to win the people’s trust in the election. Lipponen is a formidable opponent. A true statesman and capable debater, although perhaps now rather old at 70 years old.
The Swedish vote in 2012
For Swedish-speakers, Lipponen is very much worth considering when choosing how to vote. Lipponen is an extremely strong supporter of Finland’s bilingualism. Indeed, he launched his bid for the SDP candidacy with a press conference that was very much bilingual in nature, something increasingly rare for Finnish-speaking politicians in Finland. Lipponen has on several occasions spoken out against the hardening attitude against Swedish in the media during the past few years. He has also acted as chairman for the Svenska Nu project, which aims to improve the status of Swedish as a school subject in Finnish-speaking schools. Lipponen’s Swedish is as near to perfect as it can be for a non-native speaker.
Lipponen’s candidacy would perhaps present a problem for the Swedish People’s Party (SFP). Many SFP voters would likely see Lipponen as a strong supporter for Swedish interests. Would it not be a good idea for SFP to back his election – a candidate with a chance of getting elected? On the other hand, SFP has many non-socialist supporters and, especially in the highly bilingual capital area, Niinistö’s popularity may be so strong as to cross the language divide. So, should SFP have its own candidate? And if so, whom? Well, as we’ve seen, if SFP selects the right person, it can do well. Elisabeth Rehn came close to taking the presidency in 1994. In an election campaign that is likely to be dominated by two men, party leader Stefan Wallin has said he would like SFP to select a woman. Eva Biaudet stands out as the obvious candidate. Biaudet is currently Finland’s minorities ombudsman. She has spoken out against the increasingly intolerant atmosphere in Finnish society towards minority groups, especially in the wake of the rise of the populist True Finns. She could prove to be a strong candidate appealing to liberal voters of both language groups. But, would more socially conservative SFP supporters in rural Österbotten really be prepared to back a liberal candidate from Helsingfors/Helsinki? And should SFP really be cannibalising votes for strongly pro-Swedish Lipponen? The party has a tough choice ahead of it – but is aiming to make it within the next two weeks.
Pictured, the Presidential palace by the market square in the capital. This is the president’s office and the place where official guests are usually received, although today the president no longer lives there.
9 comments
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Saturday 13.8.11 at 14:40
anonymous
I can’t help thinking this election will be an unpopularity contest between Niinistö’s plastic feel of inauthencity and Lipponen’s possible untrustworthiness wrt the contradiction between his former policies and the his party’s as well as his lobbying position with the NordStream gas pipe project.
(pls remove the earlier version)
Sunday 14.8.11 at 16:07
Jonas
Niinistö does seem to be genuinely popular with many though, although I agree that he does come across as a bit arrogant and unauthentic at times. Additionally, I wonder if his popularity has more to do with the complete lack of statesman-like politicians we have of late.
At the time of writing this blog, I’d completely forgotten about Lipponen’s involvement in Nordstream. I am glad you have reminded us of it. It is a very valid point, if bought up in the right way, this could certainly damage his potential candidacy. It’s certainly something that Pekka Haavisto, the Green party’s candidate, should be considering using. But of course, this is more than just an environmental matter – it brings up some serious trust and foreign policy issues up too.
Sunday 14.8.11 at 21:16
Anonymous
SFP will of course have their own candidate. If they would support Lipponen from the start, they could just as well shutdown the entire party, as most parties in Finland are still pro Swedish, at least on paper. Not having own candidate would be very dangerous move, risk looting votes in other elections etc… Also one key matter in this “own candidate or not” is party money and SFP has money, all the money they dare to ask and spend.
it was funny, when Eva Biaudet was selected in his current position, as only person who didnt even qualify for it, but for president? Really? Sure we have now a president who has been member of DDR recognition committee and who thinks that wealth cannot be created but I would think that only way is up, not down, what comes to persons been selected as president.
Lipponen has quite poor chances in the end, too long past that will be digged, gas pipeline matter above all. What I have seen Lipponen lately in tv-shows, wont work in fast debates.
Soini wont join this show, he is aiming for next prime minister, where the real power is.
Monday 15.8.11 at 11:59
Jonas
Hello jokuvaan,
Yes, I am sure SFP will have its own candidate as well. Regardless of financial matters, although naturally SFP does have the resources to run a campaign, the majority of party members want to see an SFP candidate in the election. Personally, I also think it is healthier for democracy if parties have their own candidates in the first round, rather than backing another party’s candidate. There are SFP voters who want to be able to vote for SFP.
That said, Lipponen (assuming he gets there) would make an easy candidate for at least me to back in the second round, if against Niinistö (who failing the catastrophe of the decade, will be in the second round). I do also fear that image-matters will heavily count against Lipponen. I agree that his style is a bit staid and he also has his age against him. Whilst this shouldn’t matter, the presidential race is, for many, more down to personality than policy. This is probably even more the case in an increasingly celebrity-based age and in the new constitutional age in which the president does not really have much political power anymore anyway. Whilst I might be being slightly elitist here, I worry that a concerning number amongst the electorate vote based upon who they think would make the best party host on independence day.
I am not sure what will happen with Soini. Who do you see True Finns selecting as their candidate? Whilst I obviously dislike it, Soini is popular for many. He could feasibly make it through to the second round. I hope not, it would be a great national embarrassment and shame in the guise of the French presidential election of 2002 in which the ultra-nationalist National Front leader Jean-Marie Le Pen made it through to the second round against Jacques Chirac.
Monday 15.8.11 at 13:30
Ilona
I hope that Eva Biaudet is a candidate in the election. I have previously voted for the Greens normally, but Biaudet would be a very good candidate in the current climate. She has truly spoken out against the increasingly populist anti-immigrant narrative coming from not just the True Finns but even the mainstream parties, who out of fear of losing votes are stealing Timo Soini’s clothes instead of having the skill or courage to make the counter-argument. Finnish politics is in a sad place right now, we lack real leaders. We have a bunch of weak second-rate people in most of the key positions. Biaudet potentially offers a real alternative. Also, in a race that looks like it could be pretty male dominated, a woman entering the campaign would be welcome in this country, supposedly a Nordic democracy based on equality.
Monday 15.8.11 at 13:48
Rasmus
SFP should definitely have its own candidate. Sure, Lipponen is very pro-Swedish in an active way, unlike the other mainstream Finnish parties that are on paper, but not in practice. And it would certainly not be bad for the Swedish language in Finland if he was elected. But, ultimately I support SFP for other reasons as well. There are also SFP supporters who are not ever going to vote for a social democrat in a first round and they need someone to vote for (even if Lipponen’s shade of red is a very light one).
I think Eva Biaudet would bring a breath of fresh air to any campaign. Niinistö and Lipponen have been around for ages and are both ageing men. Biaudet is to the left in SFP though, this could count against her when the party meets to choose a candidate. That she is also from Helsinki will not help in that regard either. That might actually hurt her more than her leftist ideology, given this is a largely personality-based election, ideology matters less.
Monday 15.8.11 at 14:25
Aino
I really think that despite his popularity, on issues Niinistö is not where the majority of people are. This has been well presented here:
http://sites.google.com/site/presidentinvaali/
The elections are still coming and not all candidates are even known yet. Let’s all take a deep breath and think what we really want for the next 6 years!
Monday 15.8.11 at 16:31
Jonas
Hello Ilona, welcome to this blog! I think you make a very good point about the lack of leadership from much of the political class in opposing the forces of populism. I completely agree.
Rasmus, you are probably right that Biaudet will face opposition in securing SFP’s nomination. But she is a big name and I think that should she be willing, she will eventually get the party’s candidacy. If SFP is good at anything when it comes to its internal workings, it’s compromise and consensus.
Hello Aino, welcome! That’s an interesting site. I think you make a very good point and I agree that Niinistö is not where the majority of people are on many issues. Yet, as I have said, I fear that many vote in presidential elections according to who they’d most like to see shaking hands on 6th December rather than on policy matters. That’s perhaps somewhat understandable when the president’s power is now so limited under the present constitution. I think you are right though, it is a long time to go until the votes are cast, and that’s exactly why we should not be taking anything for granted at this stage. Let’s hope for a good balance of candidates and a lively campaign based on debating real issues. Who would you like to see standing?
Additionally, I should note that Lipponen is far from being SDP’s automatic choice for its presidential candidate. At the present time, several names have the support of at least ten SDP local branches, the party’s criteria for going forward to the selection.
Monday 15.8.11 at 18:56
jokuvaan
Maybe 30% of people would welcome Soini as a minister but only 10% for president and Soini knows this and he likes to do suprise moves and for some strange reason major medias are utter certain that Soini will take part. True Finns will use these elections as a way to broaden the party image, new face or an old face in a new light. It could be female, if most others are old men. Ahtisaari came outside of SDP, has to remember that.