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Elections to the EU parliament are underway with polling stations in Finland open until 20.00 this evening. The official result, however, will not be known until 22.00, as according to regulations, member states must wait until all polling accross the EU is over.
It remains to be seen as to whether SFP, the Swedish People’s Party, will manage to hang on to a seat in Brussels. Finland’s total number of MEPs has fallen one from 14 to 13, making it a tighter race. Opinion polls in the run up to election day gave mixed readings. However, opinion polls do generally underestimate SFP support as they most often conducted only in Finnish. Additionally, Swedish-speaking Finns tend to be more active voters in the real election, something that is not taken into account in opinion polls. In SFP’s favour in this EU election is that for the first time the most popular candidate on Åland (Britt Lundberg, a member of Åland’s Centre Party) is standing on SFP’s list. The votes of the Ålanders could be the critical factor in returning an SFP MEP. Another factor in SFP’s favour is that foreign minister Alexander Stubb (Kokoomus, National Coaltion party) was a candidate in the last EU election – it’s likely he won considerable numbers of Swedish-speakers’ votes, especially in the Helsinki area. They will now be looking for someone else to vote for. Should SFP succeed, it seems likely to be Carl Haglund (state secretary for Stefan Wallin) or Björn Månsson (until recently leader writer at Hufvudstadsbladet) who will take the seat. One thing is for sure, the only way to ensure one’s vote goes towards electing a Swedish-speaker is to vote for SFP.
Another interesting result will be to see how well Timo Soini and his True Finns do. It is not unthinkable that Soini could win the most personal votes in the country. This must be of considerable embarrasment to supporters of the Christian Democrats who are in a voting alliance for this election with the True Finns. Christian Democrat voters may well have stayed home in the realisation that a vote for a Christian Democrat will help the borderline racist True Finns. A somewhat unholy alliance.
Pictured: SFP’s EU parliament candidates
The Finnish people are not particularly concerned about the security situation here as a result of the events in the Caucasus. According to an opinion poll, ordered by Finland’s public radio and tv company Yle, 60% of respondents didn’t see the war as having any effect on Finland’s security status. A third did consider that the events in Georgia mean Finland is less secure than before. People living in eastern Finland (i.e. nearer the border with Russia) were slightly more concerned than those elsewhere in the country.
38% of Finns saw Russia as more guilty of starting the conflict. 10% believed Georgia was more in the wrong. 28% believed both parties bore equal responsibility. A fourth didn’t wish to take a position on who was more behind the conflict.
Events in Georgia continue to cause concern despite the ceasefire now having been signed by both Moscow and Tbilisi. Russian troops appear to be leaving Georgian territory deliberately slowly. Yesterday, President Tarja Halonen telephoned Russian president Medvedev. According to the president’s press office, Halonen pressed Medvedev to accept an increase in the number of OSCE monitors from 10 to 100. This seems to show that the nominally-social democratic president of the republic is supporting foreign minister Alexander Stubb´s (Kokoomus national coalition party) OSCE-chairmanship and backing up his rather strong involvement in this crisis. It would have been easy to assume that there might have been tensions between NATO-enthusiast Stubb and the president, who has been restrained (and some might even say, too deferential) when dealing with the Russians in the past. Responsibility for foreign policy is shared by the president and government, according to the Finnish constitution. The president is perceived as having the right to lead it.
Russia has also announced it is to fit nuclear weapons to naval vessels patrolling the Baltic sea. This is perhaps concerning more for the risk of accidents than any actual deliberate chance of them being used as force. According to many reports, much of even the operable parts of Russia’s naval fleet are in extremely poor condition. In other words, things haven’t improved since the Kursk disaster. Let’s just hope something more serious doesn’t occur in the Baltic.
Obviously, the news in the last few days has been heavily dominated by the events in Georgia. Finland is abnormally prominent in having a role in events as we happen to currently hold the chairmanship of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europa, OSCE. Foreign minister Alexander Stubb (Kokoomus national coaltion party) has, together with the French foreign minister (France holds the EU presidency just now) travelled to both Georgia and Moscow to mediate.
Yle’s online news service has published an interesting look at what the press is saying on the conflict. I’ll do my best to summarise it here.
The Centre party’s organ Suomenmaa has compared Georgia’s fate with Finland’s. South Ossetia is a small strip of land, smaller than the northern municipality of Kuusamo, and yet the region has now become the centre for a conflict, the paper analyses. Stalin installed a Soviet-friendly government, the Kuusinen Terijoki government in Finland, but Russia has not done something similar in Georgia… yet, the paper says.
´Our neighbour finds itself with a war, with another neighbour´ writes the highest circulated Swedish-speaking newspaper Hufvudstadsbladet (HBL). HBL warns against drawing close parallels despite the easy to make associations with the Winter War and a Finnish West Karelia and a Russian East Karelia. ´The truth is not so simple´, writes Björn Månson in HBL, ´despite spontaneous sympathies with Georgia. It’s not coincidence that the European Nato-member countries have persistently opposed Georgian Nato-membership due to it being seen as an open provocation against Russia.´
If Georgia’s leadership believed it could have counted on US, Nato or other allies turning their verbal support into material action, then they made a miscalculation – according to HBL.
Several of Sweden’s newspapers take the similar viewpoints and go further in stating that there are clear indications that is is oil and gas that ensures an cautious EU reaction to the conflict.
Stockholm’s Dagens Nyheter’s leader column notes that a Russia that can’t tolerate a neighbouring country that has ambitions to move nearer to the west is a failed state with a leadership that looks as if it acts in panic. Oil and gas pipelines mean there is a potential for energy-related political pressure in several directions – and an extremely short distance from the exchange of words to all out war.
History has not ended, writes Stockholm’s Svenska Dagbladet (SvD). ‘Now we see with what ease Russia finds excuses to take itself to war with a neighbouring country. Is it not time for a new debate on defence policy?´ ponders Claes Arwidsson in SvD. In his leader, he quotes Sweden’s foreign minister Carl Bildt (Swedish moderate party) who is presently the chairman of the Council of Europe:
´With the possible exception of Cyprus in 1974, the Council of Europe has never had to deal with a situation where there is war between two of its member states´.
Picture: Georgian president Micheil Saakasjvili, French foreign minister Bernard Kouchner, Finnish foreign minister Alexander Stubb meeting in Tbilisi on Monday 11.8. Taken from Alexander Stubb’s blog (www.alexstubb.com).
Finnish politicians, or at least those in the governing coalition, appear to be split on whether or not they should boycott the summer olympic games in Beijing.
Prime Minister Matti Vanhanen (centre party) has made it clear that he will attend the opening ceremony and stay for a few days to watch events with Finns competing in them. He made it clear that he thought that Olympics is a sporting event and not a political one. Vanhanen’s decision has been criticised by all of the candidates for the chairmanship of the opposition SDP. Although, interestingly, it seems that President Tarja Halonen (who is a nominal social democrat, although Finnish presidents resign party membership when elected) will attend.
The Minister of Culture and Sport Stefan Wallin (Swedish peoples’ party Sfp) has made it clear that he will be on his summer holiday during the period of the Olympics, with no further comment, clearly trying to avoid entering into the controversy.
Today, in a prominent difference of opinion with the prime minister, the foreign minister Alexander Stubb (coalition party Kokoomus) said that he wouldn’t attend if he were invited. He did say he thought it would be ok to participate if China began negotiations with the exiled Tibetan leader, the Dalai Lama. Clearly, Stubb does not share Vanhanen’s opinion that the olympics is just a sporting event.
From both the statements and the actions of the Chinese government, it’s hard to see how the games are removed from politics. The Chinese domestic media’s coverage of the worldwide torch relay has clear propaganda undertones, with the protests that dogged the torch’s progress in places like London, Paris and San Francisco glossed over and choice pictures of the flame with dignitaries emphasised (and often the only pictures shown). The Chinese government were probably hoping to use the Beijing Olympics as the ultimate propaganda tool – a way to make China look great and impressive on the world stage and show their own people that China is popular abroad, with world leaders there sharing in China’s achievement. Their plans for this have horribly back-fired, with it instead focusing the world’s gaze towards China’s human rights abuses. It’s hard not to imagine the Communist party’s top officials cursing over ever applying to host them.
Sport, ideally, should be apolitical. It would be grossly unfair to prevent the athletes from attending and competing at the games. After all, many of them will have spent the entirity of the last 4 years (if not longer) preparing for olympic competition. It would be cruel to deprive them of their chance to compete. However, politicians do not need to be at a sporting event for it to take place. In fact, politicians – who are, to state the obvious, political in nature – give the event a political aspect by their very attendance. People like Vanhanen and Halonen are, after all, not going as private people to spectate. They’re going to represent Finland by virtue of their political roles. So, it’s rather rich for them to suggest there’s nothing political about the games in that context. Thus, I do think they should reconsider their decisions to go. They can send a message to the Chinese regime that they will not endorse a country which is grossly violating human rights by staying at home. Better still, they can use the Olympics as leverage. Tell China they’ll come – but only if China improves its human rights situation markedly and starts talking to the Dalai Lama. This event might be the only opportunity the rest of the world has this much leverage over China for a long time. Perhaps our politicians use take it.
When foreign minister Alexander Stubb (national coalition Kokoomus party) was appointed last week (after scandal hit Ilkka Kanerva’s departure), people wondered how long it would be until Stubb would start talking about his favourite subject, Nato. Stubb has previously been seen as somewhat of a Nato enthusiast.
Well, it seems it hasn’t taken him long at all. In an interview on Yle’s Aamu-tv morning television programme this morning, Stubb claimed that Russia’s stance on any Finnish membership of Nato is unchanged. It’s an opinion that Stubb’s party colleague, the veteran Pertti Salolainen (Kokoomus) who is chairman of the parliament’s international political affairs committee, does not share. Salolainen stated recently that Russia’s opposition on any Georgian or Ukrainian Nato membership would affect Russia’s stance also on Finland. He has said that he thought it would have been easier for Finland to enter Nato without large-scale Russian opposition during Russian president Jeltsin’s time in office. In Salolainen’s view, today’s Russia is again more assertive in its foreign policy concerning its neighbours.
In direct contrast, Stubb thinks that Russia was in fact far more critical of any Nato enlargement in the mid-1990s. He told morning television that he has already had a telephone conversation with his Russian counterpart and that he sees Russia as an opportunity rather than a threat. Stubb said that he thought last week’s Bucharest Nato summit showed that the alliance’s European members were gaining in influence.
Stubb said he wants to renew foreign policy debate in Finland by making it more accessible for the public. As part of this he is considering starting blogging during his foreign minister job.
Stubb’s views on where the decision making power lies within Nato can probably be seen as an effort by him to alter the presentation of Nato in Finnish public opinion, where the alliance is often seen as a body dominated by the United States whose confrontational foreign policy is widely unpopular. If such a view on Nato could take hold, it would no doubt be easier to convince people of the merits of Nato membership. It seems Stubb will continue, at least in a small way, to bring forward his positive views on Nato even in his new job.
Today, April Fool’s Day, the gossip magazine Hymy printed, as promised, a selection of Ilkka Kanerva’s text messages to the erotic dancer Johanna Tukiainen. This was however no joke but perhaps did make the foreign minister the April Fool de jour. In total, Hymy published 24 of Kanerva’s messages, with a selection being:
- It’s sounds almost like a fantasy. Have you kept your ‘garden’ in shape?
- Would you like to do it at some exciting place? What could that be?
- How would it feel to touch you with my fingers at a nightclub?
- There was nothing wrong with yesterday’s dress either. Very womanly.
Well, you get the idea. Nothing overtly sexual but suggestive none the less. Enough for the chairman of Kanerva’s Kokoomus conservative national coalition party however. It was a clearly emotional party chairman, finance minister Jyrki Katainen, that finally explained to the press this morning that he had sacked Kanerva, “Ike is my friend and he performed his ministerial job brilliantly”, explaining that it was one of the toughest decisions in politics he has had to make but that Kanerva had broken his promise to stay away from his previous tradition of scandals when he had been appointed a minister this time around. For his part, Kanerva has said nothing today and called in sick to the foreign ministry this morning.
Alexander Stubb to be the new foreign minister
Kokoomus has selected Alexander Stubb to be the new foreign minister. The President of the Republic will formally appoint him on Friday.
Alexander Stubb is currently a member of the European Parliament and is 40 years old today. He was a voting magnet in the last European parliament elections, attracting over 115 ooo personal votes. For an MEP, he has a relatively high profile both at home and even in other European countries. He’s known to be an expert on the EU having written a number of books on the institutions and workings of the union. He has also stated favourable attitudes towards Finland’s membership of Nato in the past. However, he told Radio Vega this morning that a foreign minister can’t have personal views and that he will naturally represent the government’s viewpoints.
It is likely that Stubb will quickly gain a higher profile on the EU level with his formidable knowledge and understanding of the union and his already sound reputation.
Alexander Stubb is bilingual, speaking both Swedish and Finnish to mother tongue level. His Swedish-speaking roots (his father) come from Esse in Österbotten with his Finnish-speaking side (mother) having its roots in Viborg/Viipuri (now in Russia). At school level, Stubb attended both Swedish- and Finnish-speaking schools. He has studied in both Paris and USA, receiving a doctorate from London School of Economics on EU matters.
Ironically, another scandal hit politician will return to a job as a result of Stubb’s promotion. Stubb’s replacement in the European parliament will be Sirpa Pietikäinen who previously left active mainstream politics after being convicted of driving whilst drunk.
International media and politicians have followed the events
The events surrounding Kanerva’s departure have been noted abroad. The British news agency Reuters and German DPA have both written about it.
Stockholm’s Dagens Nyheter believes that this could put prime minister Matti Vanhanen (centre party) in a difficult situation, as he has supported Kanerva to the last whilst at the same time being involved in his own attention-grabbing affair with his ex-lover.
Sweden’s foreign minister Carl Bildt thanked Kanerva for his contribution saying that he thought Kanerva did important work for Finland. Bildt explained that he knows Stubb well, having helped him in his election work and that he thinks Stubb has much to give.
